NorterraLiving.com is up and running

I've just launched a new Norterra area website full of useful information. The ultimate goal of the site is to be a go-to resource for anyone interestested in the Norterra area. NorterraLiving.com features pages such as: community info, home collection, shopping, dining, schools, etc. I welcome feedback on this new website and I am definitely open to any suggestions:-)

Are vacant homes selling any better than occupieds?

With almost half of the homes currently listed on Arizona Regional MLS being vacant, I'm just wondering how they are selling when compared to occupied homes. I decided to run some numbers and see if there was any correlation that suggests vacant homes are selling quicker. Typically a seller would want to get rid of a vacant home faster than if they are living there or have it occupied by a tenant but of course this isn't always the case. Let's take a look at some numbers and see if they have something to say.

I ran two sets of numbers-the entire ARMLS and then only Phoenix. I compared these vacant homes with sales from last month, October 2007. Currently we have 57,291 active listings with 27,815 being vacant, or 48%. Of those active listings, 9,942 are in Phoenix and 4,390 of those are vacant-44%.

As for sold homes in October, we had 3,467 sales out of our 57,000+ listings, only 6% of the entire MLS inventory. In Phoenix numbers were a little better, with 756 sales out of 9,942, 7.6% of the Phoenix inventory. Okay, now lets see how many of those sales were vacant homes. Of the 3,467 sales on the MLS, 2,103 were vacant, 60% of all solds. Phoenix was about the same, 441 vacant homes sold out of the 756 sales, 58%.

Now there's one more set of numbers that is interesting, what percentage of vacant homes sold out of the vacant listings? Remember that only 6% of the entire MLS sold last month, and only 7.6% sold out of the Phoenix inventory. Now let's see what that percentage is with the vacants. In Phoenix, 441 vacant homes sold out of the 4390 vacant listings, 10%. Compare that to 7.6% of Phoenix homes sold and you have a gain of 2.4%. Of the entire MLS, 2,103 vacant homes sold out of the 27,815 listings, 7.6%, an increase of 1.6% over the 6% across the board. So, there was more vacant homes sold than occupieds, but not a significant amount.

What kind of conclusions can be made from this data? To me, it suggests that vacant homes are selling better because sellers are financially "pinched" more-so than if the home is occupied by an owner or renter. The difference is small which shows that many sellers are simply not able to drastically discount these vacant homes because of lack of equity. Sales falling less than 10% of inventory is probably the most important number that we need to be concerned with. I know that everyone keeps saying it, but this really is a terrific time for buyers to find a great deal. Short sales are going to grow and maybe my next analysis will be to see how those sales are going.

Are Desert Preserves becoming Phoenix's beachfront property?

We've seen it happen in California and other coastal states. Generally, property values are significantly higher the closer you get to the beach. Arizona doesn't have the coast, but we have the desert preserves, which offers amenities, recreation, and aesthetic beauty, just like the ocean. Now obviously this can't be an "apples to apples" comparison, but with our temperate climate and year round recreation, desirability comparisons can be made.

In my opinion, living near a preserve has many benefits. Miles and miles of hiking and mountain biking trails, nature in your backyard, and the aesthetic beauty of the mountain scenery are just a few. The good news is developers in Phoenix are now required to keep 60% of the preserve's 150 miles of boundaries, or about 90 miles, open to public access. This means that they cannot put up miles of homes and block walls limiting access to the public. That is exactly what happened in Ahwatukee Foothills, where 11 miles of walls cut off access to South Mountain Park.
This is going to have a big impact on the new communities surrounding the preserves. Take Fireside at Norterra, by Del Webb for example. They are embracing the fact that their 1800 homes are located within a half mile of the new Sonoran Preserve of Phoenix. Most of the culdesacs and streets follow the new requirements, and the community center directly backs up to the preserve. The developer is landscaping the bordering areas and building a trail system that will link into the existing preserve trails. Even the promotional material says the community has "an intelligent land plan that welcomes the surrounding desert."

As our city continues to develop, there will be an increased demand for these areas...rural suburbs, so to speak. Imagine the convenience of nearby shopping, restaurants, and easy freeway access surrounded by the beauty of the Sonoran desert. The desire for these neighborhoods will continue to increase as the retail continues to fill in, turning these subdivisions into a "convenient desert oasis". With our market currently geared towards the buyer, it is a great time to purchase in these areas, both for ownership and future investment benefits.

Norterra, North Phoenix Gem that I call home!!!

Norterra is an area of North Phoenix located at the base of an expansive mountain preserve. Hiking trails are abundant throughout the communities, and into the adjacent mountains, allowing residents to connect with the surrounding nature. Convenient freeway access and nearby shopping make Norterra a convenience paradise in North Phoenix.

Location

Norterra has perfected the art of balancing privacy and convenience. With quick and direct access to both I-17 and the 101, Norterra makes any valley destination easily reached, while its peaceful setting still causes you to feel like you're away from it all. Tucked in around the Phoenix mountain preserve, Norterra residents will enjoy living in a serene community, with nature at their doorsteps. With Flagstaff and Sedona within a couple hours and Lake Pleasant being a convenient shot off Highway 74, quick weekend getaways are definitely a reality.
The prominent Northeast Valley has more benefits than nice stores, beautiful mountain-scapes and accessible highways, there are also extraordinary schools. The Deer Valley Schools that serve this area are ranked in the top 6 of 42 districts in the Phoenix area.
Shopping-Within a few miles

Happy Valley Towne Center

Featuring Super Walmart, Lowes, Circuit City, Old Navy, Staples, Petco, Barnes & Noble, and many more. Restaurants are Logan's, Olive Garden, Red Robin, Friday's, and a few fast food.
http://www.shophvtc.com/

The Shops at Norterra

Nearby shopping includes the Shops at Norterra with Best Buy, PF Changs, Dicks Sporting Goods and Harkins Theaters. Opening Nov. 2007.
http://www.norterrashopping.com/

Communities

Sonoran Foothills

Sonoran Foothills is the beautiful new desert community now taking flight a mile south of the Carefree Highway at 27th Avenue. It is a quiet enclave rising with the foothills adjacent to the proposed northern mountain preserve. Sonoran Foothills presents a rare opportunity to live in harmony with the desert.Panoramic views of the nearby mountains and descending natural wash corridors help to define Sonoran Foothills. The nearby proposed mountain preserve will be connected to Sonoran Foothills via a system of trails. Natural desert trails and improved trails knit together the many community amenities and provide the ideal way to enjoy the desert experience unique to Arizona.

Dyamite Mountain Ranch

Dynamite Mountain Ranch is a planned community of 1045 single family homes nestled at the base of the Union Hills, a geological landmark in north Phoenix, Arizona. You can find us by exiting off of the I-17 freeway at Happy Valley Road and proceeding north on Norterra Parkway approximately two miles.

The community was planned and constructed by DR Horton and is part of a master planned community with shopping and jobs immediately adjacent. The community is noted for its beautifully planned and strategically located park system, all ADA accessible.
Local Employers

Employers include BF Goodrich, USAA Insurance, Chubb Insurance and Honeywell.

Wildcat Ridge in Desert Ridge YTD

There are currently 12 homes on the market for an average list price of $371,057 for 1,893 sf...$196/sf. We have 12 sold homes this year for an average sales price of $362,991 for 1,883 sf...$192/sf. Right now it is taking 4.5 months to sell.

In 2006 we had 19 homes sell for an average of $394,542 for 1,882 sf...$209/sf and it took just over 2 months to sell. That's over a 6% decrease this year and we are approaching the slow months. My advice...hold onto your home if you can for the next few months, get it rented, or be prepared to price it WAAAAY less than comparables.

For more information, check out www.danmullarkey.com

Arroyo Rojo Market Update

Currently there are 19 homes on the market with an average list price of $331k for 1963 sf...$169/sf. 17 homes have sold this year for an average of $311k for 1844 sf...$169/sf. So, homes are priced right and are currently taking about 2.5 months to sell.

Compare this to 2006, where we had 18 homes sell for an average price of $328k for 1936 sf...$169/sf. Those homes took 94 days to sell.

So, some positive news!!! In a down market, this community has not depreciated from last year and homes are selling quicker, definitely a good sign:-)

For more information, check out http://www.danmullarkey.com

Winter visitors returning

It seems as though we have had an increase in winter visitor population over the past few weeks. Many seem to be ready to purchase winter homes now that our market has cooled off and great deals abound. Hopefully this gives our market a nice "jumpstart" that we could really use right now as we approach the slower winter months.

The numbers for Phoenix Metro are in for August 2007...

For single family homes, 53,559 listed and 4,027 sold, a 13 month supply with a median home price of $249k. Compared with Aug. 2006, 45,211 listed and 5,659 sold, an 8 month supply with a median home price of $262k...Median home price has dropped 5%.

What does that mean? Well, it is a GREAT time for buyers, with plenty of inventory to choose from, and sellers generally taking lower than list price offers while paying closing costs as well. And contrary to what the media has said, there are STILL great loan programs available, such as 100% financing on 30 yr fixed for FICOs as low as 600.

My prediction is that we are close to the bottom, with 2008 still being slow but returning to normalcy, and prices rising at a steady 3-5% in 2009. Phoenix has a solid job market and is a very attractive place for both employers and residents. Commercial real estate is still very strong, which will support a strong residential market after the current excess inventory dries up. We will continue to be one of the strongest real estate markets over the next decade.

For more info, www.danmullarkey.com