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Showing posts with label phoenix. Show all posts
Showing posts with label phoenix. Show all posts
Friday, January 9, 2009
Monday, January 5, 2009
Best AZ Schools
I had a prospective buyer contact me today who is interested in relocating to the Valley and wants to find a great school for his daughter. I found some tremendous information sources and thought I'd share...
http://www.schooldigger.com/go/AZ/schoolrank.aspx
http://www.greatschools.net/modperl/go/AZ
http://phoenix.about.com/od/educprim/tp/Phoenix-Schools.htm
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2008/05/27/20080527phx-topschools0528.html
Also you can check the AZ Department of Education Website (http://www.ade.state.az.us/) and take a look at the AIMS scores of different schools and the School's Report Cards-probably one of the best info sources to look at.
http://www.schooldigger.com/go/AZ/schoolrank.aspx
http://www.greatschools.net/modperl/go/AZ
http://phoenix.about.com/od/educprim/tp/Phoenix-Schools.htm
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2008/05/27/20080527phx-topschools0528.html
Also you can check the AZ Department of Education Website (http://www.ade.state.az.us/) and take a look at the AIMS scores of different schools and the School's Report Cards-probably one of the best info sources to look at.
Friday, September 12, 2008
A call for a housing bottom worth listening to
A handful of economists and analysts predict that home prices will level off by next summer.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
September 11, 2008: 3:53 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Alan Greenspan famously declared the worst was over back in November of 2006. And the National Association of Realtors' erstwhile chief economist David Lereah called the bottom a few times, starting in May 2006.
Plenty of other economists and real estate analysts have attempted to do the same - and of course they've all been wrong.
But a consensus seemed to emerge among experts at a housing forum held by Standard & Poor's and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday in New York. Readers will be forgiven for taking this pronouncementwith a large grain of salt.
Several panelists, including Economy.com's chief economist Mark Zandi, Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) economist Charlie Himmelberg, S&P managing director David Blitzer and S&P senior economist Beth Ann Bovino all agreed that home prices would stabilize sometime during the summer of 2009.
"The bottom of the housing market is coming into view," said Zandi, whose recent book "Financial Shock," examines how the subprime mortgage crisis occurred. "House prices, based on the S&P Case-Shiller index, are down 20% peak-to-trough and I expect them to fall another 5% to 10%."
"The key is housing affordability," Zandi said. "The [price] decline is beginning to restore affordability, which is now near its long-term average. In some places, Boston, Chicago, Denver, Orange County, affordability has been restored and those markets have stabilized."
More declines ahead
One piece of good news noted was home sales volume. The number of homes sold each month has already leveled off nationally, staying within a narrow range nearly every month this year at an annualized rate of about 5.5 million units a year.
Bovino said her forecast for home price decline is slightly more bearish than Zandi's, mostly based on S&P's belief that the country is now in a recession. With the economy struggling, job losses rising and a tough lending environment, she expects prices to fall another 10%.
"We think there will be an overshoot [with prices going beyond their logical bottom]," she said, in part because so many buyers are afraid to get into the market. "Nobody wants to catch a falling knife," she said.
And after prices do bottom out, Himmelberg expects them to remain fairly flat for a year or so.
Everyone on the panel agreed that the government takeover of Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) should help the housing market.
"We expect Fannie and Freddie to be more aggressive [in buying loans] over the next few months," said Zandi. "We are at a low point in credit availability right now."
The panelists were careful to couch their optimism with caveats. Zandi, for example, points out that there is a lot of uncertainty about the fate of Fannie and Freddie, in the wake of their government takeover.
There is some speculation that the companies will be downsized by a new administration after the presidential election in November.
"Neither candidate," said S&P managing director David Blitzer, "has decided what they want to say about that."
MY THOUGHTS:
I tend to agree with this article, once affordability increases prices will stabilize. I don't think this is over, we will see a flat if not slightly decreasing market over the next 6 months. Rents are not decreasing, and once mortgage payments are equivalent to rent in an area we will have a healthy housing market. One thought to keep in mind-the good deals are going very fast right now, some with multiple offers. Buyers are out there-they know what they want and what they will pay for it.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
September 11, 2008: 3:53 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Alan Greenspan famously declared the worst was over back in November of 2006. And the National Association of Realtors' erstwhile chief economist David Lereah called the bottom a few times, starting in May 2006.
Plenty of other economists and real estate analysts have attempted to do the same - and of course they've all been wrong.
But a consensus seemed to emerge among experts at a housing forum held by Standard & Poor's and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday in New York. Readers will be forgiven for taking this pronouncementwith a large grain of salt.
Several panelists, including Economy.com's chief economist Mark Zandi, Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) economist Charlie Himmelberg, S&P managing director David Blitzer and S&P senior economist Beth Ann Bovino all agreed that home prices would stabilize sometime during the summer of 2009.
"The bottom of the housing market is coming into view," said Zandi, whose recent book "Financial Shock," examines how the subprime mortgage crisis occurred. "House prices, based on the S&P Case-Shiller index, are down 20% peak-to-trough and I expect them to fall another 5% to 10%."
"The key is housing affordability," Zandi said. "The [price] decline is beginning to restore affordability, which is now near its long-term average. In some places, Boston, Chicago, Denver, Orange County, affordability has been restored and those markets have stabilized."
More declines ahead
One piece of good news noted was home sales volume. The number of homes sold each month has already leveled off nationally, staying within a narrow range nearly every month this year at an annualized rate of about 5.5 million units a year.
Bovino said her forecast for home price decline is slightly more bearish than Zandi's, mostly based on S&P's belief that the country is now in a recession. With the economy struggling, job losses rising and a tough lending environment, she expects prices to fall another 10%.
"We think there will be an overshoot [with prices going beyond their logical bottom]," she said, in part because so many buyers are afraid to get into the market. "Nobody wants to catch a falling knife," she said.
And after prices do bottom out, Himmelberg expects them to remain fairly flat for a year or so.
Everyone on the panel agreed that the government takeover of Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) should help the housing market.
"We expect Fannie and Freddie to be more aggressive [in buying loans] over the next few months," said Zandi. "We are at a low point in credit availability right now."
The panelists were careful to couch their optimism with caveats. Zandi, for example, points out that there is a lot of uncertainty about the fate of Fannie and Freddie, in the wake of their government takeover.
There is some speculation that the companies will be downsized by a new administration after the presidential election in November.
"Neither candidate," said S&P managing director David Blitzer, "has decided what they want to say about that."
MY THOUGHTS:
I tend to agree with this article, once affordability increases prices will stabilize. I don't think this is over, we will see a flat if not slightly decreasing market over the next 6 months. Rents are not decreasing, and once mortgage payments are equivalent to rent in an area we will have a healthy housing market. One thought to keep in mind-the good deals are going very fast right now, some with multiple offers. Buyers are out there-they know what they want and what they will pay for it.
Sunday, November 4, 2007
Are vacant homes selling any better than occupieds?
With almost half of the homes currently listed on Arizona Regional MLS being vacant, I'm just wondering how they are selling when compared to occupied homes. I decided to run some numbers and see if there was any correlation that suggests vacant homes are selling quicker. Typically a seller would want to get rid of a vacant home faster than if they are living there or have it occupied by a tenant but of course this isn't always the case. Let's take a look at some numbers and see if they have something to say.
I ran two sets of numbers-the entire ARMLS and then only Phoenix. I compared these vacant homes with sales from last month, October 2007. Currently we have 57,291 active listings with 27,815 being vacant, or 48%. Of those active listings, 9,942 are in Phoenix and 4,390 of those are vacant-44%.
As for sold homes in October, we had 3,467 sales out of our 57,000+ listings, only 6% of the entire MLS inventory. In Phoenix numbers were a little better, with 756 sales out of 9,942, 7.6% of the Phoenix inventory. Okay, now lets see how many of those sales were vacant homes. Of the 3,467 sales on the MLS, 2,103 were vacant, 60% of all solds. Phoenix was about the same, 441 vacant homes sold out of the 756 sales, 58%.
Now there's one more set of numbers that is interesting, what percentage of vacant homes sold out of the vacant listings? Remember that only 6% of the entire MLS sold last month, and only 7.6% sold out of the Phoenix inventory. Now let's see what that percentage is with the vacants. In Phoenix, 441 vacant homes sold out of the 4390 vacant listings, 10%. Compare that to 7.6% of Phoenix homes sold and you have a gain of 2.4%. Of the entire MLS, 2,103 vacant homes sold out of the 27,815 listings, 7.6%, an increase of 1.6% over the 6% across the board. So, there was more vacant homes sold than occupieds, but not a significant amount.
What kind of conclusions can be made from this data? To me, it suggests that vacant homes are selling better because sellers are financially "pinched" more-so than if the home is occupied by an owner or renter. The difference is small which shows that many sellers are simply not able to drastically discount these vacant homes because of lack of equity. Sales falling less than 10% of inventory is probably the most important number that we need to be concerned with. I know that everyone keeps saying it, but this really is a terrific time for buyers to find a great deal. Short sales are going to grow and maybe my next analysis will be to see how those sales are going.
I ran two sets of numbers-the entire ARMLS and then only Phoenix. I compared these vacant homes with sales from last month, October 2007. Currently we have 57,291 active listings with 27,815 being vacant, or 48%. Of those active listings, 9,942 are in Phoenix and 4,390 of those are vacant-44%.
As for sold homes in October, we had 3,467 sales out of our 57,000+ listings, only 6% of the entire MLS inventory. In Phoenix numbers were a little better, with 756 sales out of 9,942, 7.6% of the Phoenix inventory. Okay, now lets see how many of those sales were vacant homes. Of the 3,467 sales on the MLS, 2,103 were vacant, 60% of all solds. Phoenix was about the same, 441 vacant homes sold out of the 756 sales, 58%.
Now there's one more set of numbers that is interesting, what percentage of vacant homes sold out of the vacant listings? Remember that only 6% of the entire MLS sold last month, and only 7.6% sold out of the Phoenix inventory. Now let's see what that percentage is with the vacants. In Phoenix, 441 vacant homes sold out of the 4390 vacant listings, 10%. Compare that to 7.6% of Phoenix homes sold and you have a gain of 2.4%. Of the entire MLS, 2,103 vacant homes sold out of the 27,815 listings, 7.6%, an increase of 1.6% over the 6% across the board. So, there was more vacant homes sold than occupieds, but not a significant amount.
What kind of conclusions can be made from this data? To me, it suggests that vacant homes are selling better because sellers are financially "pinched" more-so than if the home is occupied by an owner or renter. The difference is small which shows that many sellers are simply not able to drastically discount these vacant homes because of lack of equity. Sales falling less than 10% of inventory is probably the most important number that we need to be concerned with. I know that everyone keeps saying it, but this really is a terrific time for buyers to find a great deal. Short sales are going to grow and maybe my next analysis will be to see how those sales are going.
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Arroyo Rojo Market Update
Currently there are 19 homes on the market with an average list price of $331k for 1963 sf...$169/sf. 17 homes have sold this year for an average of $311k for 1844 sf...$169/sf. So, homes are priced right and are currently taking about 2.5 months to sell.
Compare this to 2006, where we had 18 homes sell for an average price of $328k for 1936 sf...$169/sf. Those homes took 94 days to sell.
So, some positive news!!! In a down market, this community has not depreciated from last year and homes are selling quicker, definitely a good sign:-)
For more information, check out http://www.danmullarkey.com
Compare this to 2006, where we had 18 homes sell for an average price of $328k for 1936 sf...$169/sf. Those homes took 94 days to sell.
So, some positive news!!! In a down market, this community has not depreciated from last year and homes are selling quicker, definitely a good sign:-)
For more information, check out http://www.danmullarkey.com
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Winter visitors returning
It seems as though we have had an increase in winter visitor population over the past few weeks. Many seem to be ready to purchase winter homes now that our market has cooled off and great deals abound. Hopefully this gives our market a nice "jumpstart" that we could really use right now as we approach the slower winter months.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
The numbers for Phoenix Metro are in for August 2007...
For single family homes, 53,559 listed and 4,027 sold, a 13 month supply with a median home price of $249k. Compared with Aug. 2006, 45,211 listed and 5,659 sold, an 8 month supply with a median home price of $262k...Median home price has dropped 5%.
What does that mean? Well, it is a GREAT time for buyers, with plenty of inventory to choose from, and sellers generally taking lower than list price offers while paying closing costs as well. And contrary to what the media has said, there are STILL great loan programs available, such as 100% financing on 30 yr fixed for FICOs as low as 600.
My prediction is that we are close to the bottom, with 2008 still being slow but returning to normalcy, and prices rising at a steady 3-5% in 2009. Phoenix has a solid job market and is a very attractive place for both employers and residents. Commercial real estate is still very strong, which will support a strong residential market after the current excess inventory dries up. We will continue to be one of the strongest real estate markets over the next decade.
For more info, www.danmullarkey.com
What does that mean? Well, it is a GREAT time for buyers, with plenty of inventory to choose from, and sellers generally taking lower than list price offers while paying closing costs as well. And contrary to what the media has said, there are STILL great loan programs available, such as 100% financing on 30 yr fixed for FICOs as low as 600.
My prediction is that we are close to the bottom, with 2008 still being slow but returning to normalcy, and prices rising at a steady 3-5% in 2009. Phoenix has a solid job market and is a very attractive place for both employers and residents. Commercial real estate is still very strong, which will support a strong residential market after the current excess inventory dries up. We will continue to be one of the strongest real estate markets over the next decade.
For more info, www.danmullarkey.com
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