A call for a housing bottom worth listening to

A handful of economists and analysts predict that home prices will level off by next summer.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
September 11, 2008: 3:53 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Alan Greenspan famously declared the worst was over back in November of 2006. And the National Association of Realtors' erstwhile chief economist David Lereah called the bottom a few times, starting in May 2006.
Plenty of other economists and real estate analysts have attempted to do the same - and of course they've all been wrong.

But a consensus seemed to emerge among experts at a housing forum held by Standard & Poor's and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday in New York. Readers will be forgiven for taking this pronouncementwith a large grain of salt.
Several panelists, including Economy.com's chief economist Mark Zandi, Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) economist Charlie Himmelberg, S&P managing director David Blitzer and S&P senior economist Beth Ann Bovino all agreed that home prices would stabilize sometime during the summer of 2009.

"The bottom of the housing market is coming into view," said Zandi, whose recent book "Financial Shock," examines how the subprime mortgage crisis occurred. "House prices, based on the S&P Case-Shiller index, are down 20% peak-to-trough and I expect them to fall another 5% to 10%."

"The key is housing affordability," Zandi said. "The [price] decline is beginning to restore affordability, which is now near its long-term average. In some places, Boston, Chicago, Denver, Orange County, affordability has been restored and those markets have stabilized."
More declines ahead

One piece of good news noted was home sales volume. The number of homes sold each month has already leveled off nationally, staying within a narrow range nearly every month this year at an annualized rate of about 5.5 million units a year.

Bovino said her forecast for home price decline is slightly more bearish than Zandi's, mostly based on S&P's belief that the country is now in a recession. With the economy struggling, job losses rising and a tough lending environment, she expects prices to fall another 10%.
"We think there will be an overshoot [with prices going beyond their logical bottom]," she said, in part because so many buyers are afraid to get into the market. "Nobody wants to catch a falling knife," she said.

And after prices do bottom out, Himmelberg expects them to remain fairly flat for a year or so.
Everyone on the panel agreed that the government takeover of Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) should help the housing market.
"We expect Fannie and Freddie to be more aggressive [in buying loans] over the next few months," said Zandi. "We are at a low point in credit availability right now."
The panelists were careful to couch their optimism with caveats. Zandi, for example, points out that there is a lot of uncertainty about the fate of Fannie and Freddie, in the wake of their government takeover.

There is some speculation that the companies will be downsized by a new administration after the presidential election in November.

"Neither candidate," said S&P managing director David Blitzer, "has decided what they want to say about that."

MY THOUGHTS:

I tend to agree with this article, once affordability increases prices will stabilize. I don't think this is over, we will see a flat if not slightly decreasing market over the next 6 months. Rents are not decreasing, and once mortgage payments are equivalent to rent in an area we will have a healthy housing market. One thought to keep in mind-the good deals are going very fast right now, some with multiple offers. Buyers are out there-they know what they want and what they will pay for it.

Norterra, North Phoenix Gem that I call home!!!

Norterra is an area of North Phoenix located at the base of an expansive mountain preserve. Hiking trails are abundant throughout the communities, and into the adjacent mountains, allowing residents to connect with the surrounding nature. Convenient freeway access and nearby shopping make Norterra a convenience paradise in North Phoenix.

Location

Norterra has perfected the art of balancing privacy and convenience. With quick and direct access to both I-17 and the 101, Norterra makes any valley destination easily reached, while its peaceful setting still causes you to feel like you're away from it all. Tucked in around the Phoenix mountain preserve, Norterra residents will enjoy living in a serene community, with nature at their doorsteps. With Flagstaff and Sedona within a couple hours and Lake Pleasant being a convenient shot off Highway 74, quick weekend getaways are definitely a reality.
The prominent Northeast Valley has more benefits than nice stores, beautiful mountain-scapes and accessible highways, there are also extraordinary schools. The Deer Valley Schools that serve this area are ranked in the top 6 of 42 districts in the Phoenix area.
Shopping-Within a few miles

Happy Valley Towne Center

Featuring Super Walmart, Lowes, Circuit City, Old Navy, Staples, Petco, Barnes & Noble, and many more. Restaurants are Logan's, Olive Garden, Red Robin, Friday's, and a few fast food.
http://www.shophvtc.com/

The Shops at Norterra

Nearby shopping includes the Shops at Norterra with Best Buy, PF Changs, Dicks Sporting Goods and Harkins Theaters. Opening Nov. 2007.
http://www.norterrashopping.com/

Communities

Sonoran Foothills

Sonoran Foothills is the beautiful new desert community now taking flight a mile south of the Carefree Highway at 27th Avenue. It is a quiet enclave rising with the foothills adjacent to the proposed northern mountain preserve. Sonoran Foothills presents a rare opportunity to live in harmony with the desert.Panoramic views of the nearby mountains and descending natural wash corridors help to define Sonoran Foothills. The nearby proposed mountain preserve will be connected to Sonoran Foothills via a system of trails. Natural desert trails and improved trails knit together the many community amenities and provide the ideal way to enjoy the desert experience unique to Arizona.

Dyamite Mountain Ranch

Dynamite Mountain Ranch is a planned community of 1045 single family homes nestled at the base of the Union Hills, a geological landmark in north Phoenix, Arizona. You can find us by exiting off of the I-17 freeway at Happy Valley Road and proceeding north on Norterra Parkway approximately two miles.

The community was planned and constructed by DR Horton and is part of a master planned community with shopping and jobs immediately adjacent. The community is noted for its beautifully planned and strategically located park system, all ADA accessible.
Local Employers

Employers include BF Goodrich, USAA Insurance, Chubb Insurance and Honeywell.

Wildcat Ridge in Desert Ridge YTD

There are currently 12 homes on the market for an average list price of $371,057 for 1,893 sf...$196/sf. We have 12 sold homes this year for an average sales price of $362,991 for 1,883 sf...$192/sf. Right now it is taking 4.5 months to sell.

In 2006 we had 19 homes sell for an average of $394,542 for 1,882 sf...$209/sf and it took just over 2 months to sell. That's over a 6% decrease this year and we are approaching the slow months. My advice...hold onto your home if you can for the next few months, get it rented, or be prepared to price it WAAAAY less than comparables.

For more information, check out www.danmullarkey.com

Arroyo Rojo Market Update

Currently there are 19 homes on the market with an average list price of $331k for 1963 sf...$169/sf. 17 homes have sold this year for an average of $311k for 1844 sf...$169/sf. So, homes are priced right and are currently taking about 2.5 months to sell.

Compare this to 2006, where we had 18 homes sell for an average price of $328k for 1936 sf...$169/sf. Those homes took 94 days to sell.

So, some positive news!!! In a down market, this community has not depreciated from last year and homes are selling quicker, definitely a good sign:-)

For more information, check out http://www.danmullarkey.com

Winter visitors returning

It seems as though we have had an increase in winter visitor population over the past few weeks. Many seem to be ready to purchase winter homes now that our market has cooled off and great deals abound. Hopefully this gives our market a nice "jumpstart" that we could really use right now as we approach the slower winter months.

The numbers for Phoenix Metro are in for August 2007...

For single family homes, 53,559 listed and 4,027 sold, a 13 month supply with a median home price of $249k. Compared with Aug. 2006, 45,211 listed and 5,659 sold, an 8 month supply with a median home price of $262k...Median home price has dropped 5%.

What does that mean? Well, it is a GREAT time for buyers, with plenty of inventory to choose from, and sellers generally taking lower than list price offers while paying closing costs as well. And contrary to what the media has said, there are STILL great loan programs available, such as 100% financing on 30 yr fixed for FICOs as low as 600.

My prediction is that we are close to the bottom, with 2008 still being slow but returning to normalcy, and prices rising at a steady 3-5% in 2009. Phoenix has a solid job market and is a very attractive place for both employers and residents. Commercial real estate is still very strong, which will support a strong residential market after the current excess inventory dries up. We will continue to be one of the strongest real estate markets over the next decade.

For more info, www.danmullarkey.com